Price, cost, inventory and supply and demand balance of the downstream industry is a key factor to determine
the basic fundamentals of non-ferrous metals enterprises four.
Of course, the price is the beginning and the core of everything. Metal industry boom is determined by three
factors: first, supply and demand, as a strong cyclical industry, and as a global industry, the industry's supply
and demand depends on the global economy; two is the liquidity; three is the dollar trend.
In a substantial slowdown in global economic growth environment, the basic metals prices continue to go
down this year, while the European debt crisis and the introduction of the United States QE3, and together to
promote the gold as the representative of your precious metals.
In such a large environment, to come to the eleventh month of 2012, a lot of basic metals prices have been at
the cost of the line, which is especially aluminum, zinc, lead.
As of November 1, the period of aluminum, copper, zinc and lead in the month of contract closing price
respectively for 15220 yuan / tons, 57040 yuan / tons, 14685 yuan / ton and 15180 yuan / tons, the Yangtze
River nickel, tin spot price respectively is 117000 yuan / ton and 147750 yuan / tons.
These prices have infinite approximation cost, some even have caused the upside down. To aluminum, for
example, the production cost of electrolytic aluminum production costs about 1.9 tons of electrolytic
aluminum requires 14500 tons of alumina, electrolytic aluminum production costs about 15300-15700 yuan /
ton, some even higher.
And the current 15200 yuan / ton of aluminum prices, no doubt has fallen through the production cost of
aluminum smelting enterprises, if the production cost of 15700 yuan /ton, the aluminum smelting enterprises
every year on the loss of nearly 500 yuan.
And this situation has lasted a long time, the aluminum month futures contract price from the previous period,
most of the first half of 2012, its price in the $15900-16000 / ton struggling to support.
However close in June, some local governments in China for aluminum smelting enterprises implement fiscal
subsidies news, makes the domestic aluminum prices dropping sharply,the previous month aluminum contract
price from mid June below 15900 yuan / ton, no longer able to rise, has been hovering in the 15300 yuan / ton
-15600 / ton price.
This from the non-ferrous metals listed company 2012 semi annual report can be found, in electrolytic
aluminum as the main products of the company. Its main products gross profit margin all lost, maintained at
about 1%.