2013 China's economy will continue a short cycle of recovery, but it is difficult to return to the previous 9%
years of 2008, the growth rate of aluminum consumption will slow recovery, especially in infrastructure for
aluminum consumption boost, but the capacity expansion is more prominent. At the same time, due to the
high degree of external dependence of bauxite, imports of bauxite prices continue to rise, which gives the
electrolytic aluminum industry has brought additional pressure in addition to the cost of electricity. From the
price,due to rising costs caused by the cost of the emergence of a cost driven recovery,but due to overcapacity,
the price is above the space is also limited, is expected to run between 15500-16200 yuan.
First of all, the high degree of external dependence of China's bauxite. With the rapid development of China's
aluminum industry, the domestic bauxite resources gap is growing,while the domestic bauxite mining costs are
relatively high and low grade, resulting in the domestic bauxite mining and selection capacity is difficult to
expand, which requires a large number of overseas imports of bauxite. Data show that as early as November
2011, the aluminum mining and selection of gross margin fell to -2.15%, while in August 2011 gross margin
was 22.07%. Statistics found that in 2011 the price of alumina in the 2800 yuan /ton can not guarantee that
the bauxite mining and selection of the positive rate. And Indonesia to improve the export tariff of bauxite,
the domestic import prices also rose,which further increases the cost of domestic alumina enterprises. China
imported from Indonesia in October, the average price of 52.36 U. s.dollars / ton, an increase of 19.86%,the
use of imported bauxite production of alumina costs rose at 120 yuan / ton.Secondly, although the industry
has been a loss, but the pace of capacity expansion did not stop. From the perspective of industrial West,the
Middle East and the constant rising of energy price, electrolytic aluminum enterprises westward. As of the end
of 2011, only one in Xinjiang in the construction of the proposed capacity is as high as 1305 million tons; on
the other hand, due to the Middle East and southern provinces industrial exit mechanism is not perfect, middle
east ministry of electrolytic aluminum production capacity is not reduced, resulting in electrolytic aluminum
production capacity "enter on the West and the East is not refundable". Through the relevant data estimates,
2012 electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach 28000000 tons, in 2013 is expected to exceed
30000000 tons mark.
Finally, due to the elimination of backward production capacity due to steady growth in the impulse and
slowing down, the first batch of non-ferrous metals industry in 2012 to eliminate backward production apacity,
the list of 9 companies involved in electrolytic aluminum, 271600 tons of capacity, a lot of 2011 has been shut
down by the electrolytic tank; and in 2012 the second batch of non-ferrous metal phase out backward
production capacity is not related to the backward production capacity of electrolytic aluminum. From the
consumer perspective, 1-10 month domestic electrolytic aluminum consumption reached 16667600 tons, an
increase of 12.98%, but net of domestic high up to 1400000 tons of aluminum, the actual consumption is only
14267600 tons, compared with the same period last year, an increase of 7.2%. Coupled with a seasonal off-
season in December,2012 annual consumption is also only 15700000 tons, the growth rate may fall to 7%, due
to the demand will occur in 2013 due to mild warming, but the consumer growth rate will not exceed 8%.
New urbanization as a new hot spot will drive China's economy to maintain a steady growth in the second high,
aluminum consumption will increase modestly, but due to the urgent need to solve the problem of excess
capacity, as well as the electrolytic aluminum industry will face the pressure of rising import prices, and
therefore determine the price will be moderate return.
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